Where the vote moved more, or less, than in Brazil since 2022
Against 2022, 692 municipalities ended above Brazil's line (they moved more toward Lula than the country) and 4,878 below. The correlation between the two votes, weighted by electorate, is 0.985: the 2026 map is largely 2022's.
Brazil Election 2026 · Published October 26, 2026 · Source: TSE
What the map shows
Each place's swing since the 2022 runoff minus Brazil's. It is also how far each place missed a "uniform swing": the prediction that every place would move as the country did.
Frequently asked questions
In how many municipalities did the vote move more than the country's since 2022?
Against 2022, 692 municipalities ended above Brazil's line (they moved more toward Lula than the country) and 4,878 below. The correlation between the two votes, weighted by electorate, is 0.985: the 2026 map is largely 2022's.